u2.08.05 Propagation of uncertainties and calculation of fragility curves

Summary:

This document gives the elements for implementing numerical Monte Carlo simulations via the distribution of calculations with Code_Aster.

The five main ingredients are:

• the creation of the experimental design: drawing random variables from the \(\mathit{Ns}\) case studies;

• the Code_Aster format for the launch of \(\mathit{Ns}\) mechanical studies (.distr file);

• Code_Aster calculations;

• reading the calculation results and writing them into a single file;

• statistical post-processing: calculation of classical statistical estimators such as the mean, the standard deviation, etc.; the estimation of the parameters of a log-normal fragility curve (POST_DYNA_ALEA); other post-treatments…

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Monte Carlo simulation with Code_Aster
  • 2.1. Realization of the experience plan
  • 2.2. Definition and launch of distributed studies with Code_Aster
  • 2.3. Retrieve calculation results in a file
• 3. Statistical post-processing
  • 3.1. Calculation of statistical quantities
  • 3.2. Calculation of fragility curves
• 4. Bibliography